Green New Deals
Can Trade Negotiations Benefit the Environment?
Trade deals are back on the table. And while the commentary seems mostly focused on whether or not the deals will close, or how ambitious they will be, or what can be done with China, let’s consider another angle. Could these deals include provisions that address environmental challenges like climate?
Let’s take stock.
The White House is under pressure to close the deals (even if they deny that). It’s pretty clear that if the trade deals fail, the markets will tank, and no one wants that.
Also, again despite what they claim, the White House has proven to be quite receptive to lobbying and very flexible on trade. Just look at the history of recently announced tariffs over the past few weeks: it’s replete with exemptions, exceptions, reductions, and delays.
These changes resulted from direct business pushback. Mostly behind closed doors and on issues that get to their core interests, the business community showed us how much clout and leverage they have.
This newsletter has consistently argued that most leaders in the business community understand the climate challenge very well (because it impacts them!) and that they have the political clout to help us get the public policy we need. They’ve just proven us right on the clout point. When their businesses were directly threatened, they were able to use their leverage to reshape policy in their favor. Climate is different, of course, but businesses also have reasons to favor specific environmental provisions. Not to get undercut by a cheaper, more damaging product from abroad, for example. Or to have unencumbered access to essential green tech imports to drive EVs and other innovative manufacturing.
Other countries have leverage here, too. These are bilateral deals, so again despite what the White House claims, the other side definitionally has negotiating power. China, for example, could prioritize its ability to export batteries and solar panels.
In our view, environmentalists should engage and try to do the same thing. Use this moment to push for the environmental provisions we care most about and that we can argue should be included in smartly designed trade pacts.
We’ve repeatedly noted that to make real progress, environmentalists need to learn how to connect with mainstream voters who aren’t climate hawks. This is a good way to do just that. We can talk about environmental provisions in terms that speak to more people: jobs, energy security, enabling on-shore manufacturing, ending unfair competition from abroad, driving innovation, etc. And we can rally the business community and other countries to support us.
Are the politics here very tough? Yes. The White House seems eager to eliminate climate and other environmental initiatives whenever it can. But that doesn’t mean progress is impossible. The White House has some interests here that align with ours, especially if we make our claims in the language they speak.
And anyway it’s time for environmentalists to do everything we can to grow and broaden our coalition of voters. Hard work now on the trade front can lead to some near-term wins (even if they are small) and also lay the groundwork for upcoming elections. Let’s get to work.
Onward,
