Big Opportunities in Dubai
COP28 is the ideal setting for global climate collaboration
The Instigator is co-authored this week by me and my friend Peter Ebsen. (See here, here, here, and here for past articles we’ve written together.)
The next climate COP is taking place in a few short weeks. And it’s a good thing, because many important matters demand the attention of the climate community right now. We’re both excited about participating in the COP, and we have a concrete list of priorities in hand, which we detail below.
What about you? Where specifically do you hope to see progress? And if you’re going to be there, what topics will be your focus? Please let us know.
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Two big things happen at COPs.
First, under the auspices of the United Nations, diplomats, multilateral representatives, and NGO leaders engage in global rulemaking. This is vital work, but we will leave its coverage to the media that does it so well.
Second, the COP now also functions like a global trade fair for climate opportunities. This is where a lot of cross-collaboration is born, as private sector players (companies, money managers/investors, bankers, lawyers), NGOs, activists, academics, and political leaders all push one another in connection with various key opportunities. We think this type of cross-sector collaboration is the most important ingredient for accelerated climate progress, so this is where we will focus our time.
Here are the priority questions we’d like to tackle at the COP:
1- How can we raise confidence in nature-based carbon removal?
Most climate professionals agree that no matter how much we prioritize and accelerate ghg emission reduction, it won’t be enough. We need to supplement those efforts with technology-based and nature-based carbon removal. For the time being, tech-based removal remains very expensive and energy-intensive. Nature-based removals already work and provide many important co-benefits such as biodiversity protection, climate adaptation (e.g., protection from storms), and benefits to vulnerable communities. But confidence in these projects is quite low. We need to fix that.
Where to start? Who needs to do what to ensure the removal works as intended and that no harm is imposed on communities and nature? We’re optimistic that these challenges can be addressed but it will require great collaboration, negotiation, and hard work.
2- How can we accelerate the flow of capital to lower-income countries for investment in climate mitigation/adaptation and biodiversity protection?
This is always on the diplomatic agenda, but the diplomats have trouble shaking the coffers loose, let alone in the amounts needed for impact. Doing so requires specific deals and well-structured investment opportunities. These are best delivered through cross-sector collaboration.
One great example is debt-for-nature swaps. Mark is proud that his former organization, TNC, in partnership with several different countries who have important opportunities for nature-based investments, has closed several key deals in recent years. Other NGOs like the Pew Charitable Trust (again with great governmental and private sector partners) are also now getting these complex deals across the finish line. But there are many additional opportunities, and they can all be win-win-win. What holds up progress? Various obstacles such as ready sources of credit enhancement, agreed-upon protocols to ensure benefits flow to local communities, standardization of oversight protocols and documentation, etc. Let’s hope COP participants can agree on ways to address such challenges and move forward.
3- How can we increase the likelihood of countries meeting their 30x30 commitments?
We are heartened that most countries came out of the biodiversity COP last year having agreed to protect 30% of their land and water by 2030. But past biodiversity COPs have missed their goals. What specific actions now will allow the 30x30 goal to be achieved? Where will the required capital come from? Perhaps implementing nature-based carbon removal programs, debt-for-nature swaps, or biodiversity credits? Is there an important role for net-zero pledging corporations or foundations to play? What other investment opportunities can galvanize action here? Where and when might so-called “blended capital” structures carry the day?
4- How can climate-engaged companies prepare for the EU Green Claims Directive?
The EU is enacting rules that will require companies to ensure their environmental claims are fully substantiated. These rules are the legislative expression of societal backlash against perceived greenwashing. (Other jurisdictions have similar regulations pending.) How should companies respond? What does responsible “climate-engagement” look like today, and what will it look like tomorrow?
5- How should climate regulations, investments, and business practices be organized and governed to ensure a full appreciation of a shared global humanity?
Put simply, the future needs to be greener and more prosperous, and that prosperity needs to be more equitably shared. How do we make that happen?
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These are some of the questions that will animate our time in Dubai. We will seek out broad engagement, listen to a wide array of perspectives, and hopefully come up with some new ideas and ways of thinking.
But before we go, what are we missing? Let us know the questions you’re asking right now. And please give us a heads up if there are important sessions at the COP that we should join.